Are Ferrari and Charles Leclerc back in the hunt for F1's 2024 titles after stunning Monza win? (2024)

After Charles Leclerc's surprise victory for Ferrari at the Italian Grand Prix, Sky Sports F1 assess whether driver and team are back in championship contention.

The win, aided by a major upgrade package the Italian squad brought to their home race, was Ferrari's first since Leclerc triumphed at the Monaco Grand Prix in late May.

After Leclerc's win at his home race, he was only 31 points back from Drivers' Championship leader Max Verstappen and Ferrari had closed to within 24 points of Red Bull at the top of the Constructors' Championship,

• Martin Brundle: Ferrari outwit rivals as Oscar Piastri shows killer instinct
• Stream every F1 race with NOW Sports Month Membership
• Get Sky Sports on WhatsApp

That result sparked talk of a title battles in both championships but Ferrari would regress dramatically over the weeks that followed, with Lando Norris and his McLaren team emerging as Red Bull's main challenger, and Mercedes also surging into contention for race wins.

While there had been signs of progress with podium finishes for Leclerc either side of the summer break in Belgium and the Netherlands, there was little evidence that Ferrari were ready to return to the top step of the podium at Monza.

Halfway through Sunday's race that prospect still seemed unlikely, until it became clear Ferrari were attempting an audacious one-stop strategy, which Leclerc executed to perfection to prevent McLaren repeating the one-two finish they had delivered in qualifying.

The scenes as the Tifosi celebrated a first Ferrari win at Monza since 2019 were among the most stunning sport has to offer, but questions remain over whether this was a one-off or confirmation that Ferrari are back.

How fast were Ferrari amid strategic masterstroke?

Leclerc's victory was the result of an audacious strategic gamble from Ferrari, as they put both the Monegasque and his team-mate Carlos Sainz on one-stoppers while the rest of the front-runners pitted twice.

Similarly to when George Russell won for Mercedes in Belgium (before he was disqualified), the Ferrari drivers benefitted from finding themselves in a race position where they didn't have a huge amount to lose from attempting the one-stopper.

While there is always huge pressure on Ferrari to perform at Monza, the fact they have fallen away in the standings meant that missing out on a few points if the gamble had failed wouldn't have been a disaster.

Leclerc found himself running third after being undercut by Norris at the first round of pit stops, and was left with a decision to make when McLaren's Oscar Piastri and Norris pitted again to give him the lead.

"Oscar maybe was a little bit quicker," Leclerc reflected. "It was difficult to see Lando's pace as he was behind.

"Then once we got undercut, I was like, 'ok, maybe we are losing the win there.' But then once they both pitted, I actually picked up quite a lot of front grip, having the free air in front."

Leclerc and Sainz extended their stints and maintained a solid pace, which in the former's case was enough to hold off Piastri for victory. Sainz played his part by briefly halting the McLaren driver's progress before eventually finishing fourth.

"Being the last car, I didn't have much to lose by trying the one-stop," Leclerc said. "But we did a really, really good job with that front left, which has been very, very tricky for everybody. We had a lot of front graining but managed to take that front grip again. And that helped us to win today."

While the way the Ferrari drivers were able to make their tyres last was impressive, the McLaren's were still faster on the day and it's reasonable to assume Piastri could have made it to the end ahead of Leclerc had he one-stopped.

Was the upgrade just a 'Monza special'?

In addition to pulling off a strategic masterstroke, Ferrari were also the only top team to bring significant upgrades to Monza.

The track is something of an outlier on the F1 calendar, meaning that a car that performs well at the circuit isn't necessarily guaranteed to be particularly competitive elsewhere.

Ferrari brought seven new parts that are general upgrades that should remain on the car for the rest of the season, along with circuit specific front and rear wings.

It's fair to say Ferrari probably place greater emphasis on their 'Monza special' rear wing, but only time will tell if the permanent new parts, including an updated floor, will result in a leap forward.

Team principal Fred Vasseur said: "It's quite difficult to understand the impact of the upgrade on a track like Monza because it is such a different configuration compared to the rest of the season, that it's quite difficult to understand.

"In qualifying, you see six or seven cars in less than one tenth. Every single bit makes the difference.

"For sure you can say the upgrade is crucial but the pace on Sunday was more linked to tyre management. In qualifying, when you have six cars in two tenths, that's when every single upgrade will pay a lot."

Leclerc also admitted that Ferrari's rear wing may have been a crucial factor in Monza.

"We've got to be cautious," he said. "After Monaco, I think we've had the four worst races of the season, because Monaco was so specific to our car at that time.

"Monza is also a very specific and particular track. Lots of straights, not many corners. We had a rear wing for this track as well, which helped us to win today."

Is a title challenge realistic?

Leclerc's victory reduced his deficit to Verstappen to 86 points, which is a huge gap to close down with just eight rounds of the season remaining.

While Verstappen is struggling badly, the fact Norris is also 24 points ahead of Leclerc in a very consistent McLaren makes it hard to see a scenario in which the Monegasque can get back into to contention.

In the constructors' standings, Ferrari's strong result brought them within 39 points of leaders Red Bull, who are now only eight points clear of McLaren.

That gap is certainly bridgeable for Ferrari, but once more McLaren look like they will be hugely difficult to overhaul.

A more realistic target might be chasing down Red Bull for what could end up being second.

For any of these ambitions to be realistic Ferrari will need more victories, which Vasseur seems to think is possible.

"It's so tight the fight," he said. "I spent couple of years on the pit wall, but it's the first time that I think in F1 we have this situation where eight drivers can win the race, without an accident or crash, that four teams are able to win or to be on the podium.

"I have the feeling it will be like this everywhere, except Lando dominating in Zandvoort, so I have the feeling it will be like this until the end of the season.

"It will be a huge fight. With eight cars, with this competitiveness, one team can do a one-two and another seventh and eighth, then this makes a huge difference in points."

As for where Ferrari are most likely to win again, Leclerc is eyeing the streets of Singapore at the end of September.

"Singapore maybe could be a strong track for us," Leclerc said. "On the other tracks, I still feel like we are a step behind McLaren and Red Bull.

"But today we've seen that we can be very on a par with McLaren if we do everything perfect.

"I think that the upgrade has helped us in some ways today to have the same pace as them. However, for the other tracks, I don't know whether it will be enough to completely close the gap, especially the gap we've seen in the previous races."

Formula 1 leaves mainland Europe for Baku and the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on September 13-15, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream every F1 race and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership - No contract, cancel anytime